On his very first carry Saturday in Raleigh, Nate Sheppard went 69 yards to the end zone and struck the pose. Not a celebration. A campaign speech.
By the time Duke finished off a 41-3 win at NC State, Sheppard had 217 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries. That’s 12.1 yards a pop, and it’s the exact same number of yards (217) as NC State’s entire offense. The Blue Devils had launched an official Heisman push for him that same week. He backed it up in about 15 seconds of game time.
The sportsbooks still don’t buy it. Sheppard has bounced between +5500 and +7000 on FanDuel’s Heisman board this weekend, 10th overall, behind a wall of quarterbacks led by Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, who took over as the favorite after the Irish beat Miami. Here’s why that’s wrong, and why the Duke sophomore deserves a ticket to New York, and the trophy.
The stat line
| Nate Sheppard, 2026 (9 games) | Total | National context |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 1,189 | No. 2 in FBS |
| Rushing touchdowns | 17 | Duke single-season record |
| Yards per carry | 6.2 | 191 carries |
| Receiving | 32 catches, 306 yards, 4 TD | |
| Yards from scrimmage | 1,495 | 166.1 per game |
| Total touchdowns | 21 | Duke single-season record |
1. He’s at the top of the FBS, and nobody near him scores like he does
Sheppard’s 1,189 rushing yards trail only Boise State’s Dylan Riley (1,241) in the entire FBS. Look at the rest of the top 10 and the gap shows up in the touchdown column. Riley has 11 rushing scores. Sheppard has 17. The only top-10 rusher with more is Navy quarterback Jackson Gutierrez (18), who touches the ball on every snap of a triple-option offense.
2. He has scored in every single game
Nine games, nine games with a touchdown. Sheppard opened the year with 227 yards against Tulane, still his career high, and has five 100-yard rushing games, including two of 200-plus.
Yes, there was a dip in October. Against Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia and Boston College he didn’t crack 100 rushing yards. But look at how he stayed productive: 91 receiving yards at Georgia Tech, 11 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown against UNC, and a school-record five rushing touchdowns against Boston College. When defenses loaded up on him, he beat them a different way. Then he came out of that stretch with 217 yards in Raleigh.
3. He’s rewriting the Duke record book in real time
Duke has been playing football since the 1880s. In nine games, Sheppard has already taken over a big chunk of the record book:
- 17 rushing touchdowns, a single-season school record. The old mark was 14, shared by Winston Siegfried (1941) and Brandon Connette (2013).
- 21 total touchdowns, also a single-season school record. He broke it on Halloween and has kept adding to it.
- 5 rushing touchdowns in one game against Boston College, a Duke single-game record.
- 52 yards from Mataeo Durant’s single-season rushing record of 1,241 yards (2021).
- Only the second Duke player with multiple 1,000-yard seasons, joining Randy Cuthbert.
- 2,321 career rushing yards, already seventh in program history, as a sophomore.
4. He’s carrying an offense, not riding one
The modern Heisman goes to the best player on a juggernaut. Carr and Mensah are terrific quarterbacks on loaded rosters. Sheppard is the whole plan at Duke. He’s averaging 166 yards from scrimmage per game for a team that’s 7-2 (4-2 ACC) and still alive in the race for the ACC Championship Game. Take him off this roster and Duke isn’t in that conversation.
The Heisman goes to the “most outstanding” player in college football. Not the best player on the best team.
5. How he stacks up with the legends
Let’s be honest about this one. Sheppard isn’t chasing Barry Sanders. Through nine games he’s on pace for about 1,585 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns over a 12-game regular season. That’s short of the greatest running back seasons ever, all of which cleared 2,100 yards or 28 touchdowns (and several of which got bowl games added to the total).
But the bar for a running back to win this award isn’t Barry Sanders. Derrick Henry was the last back to win it, in 2015, and Ashton Jeanty finished runner-up in 2024 with the second-best rushing season in FBS history. With an ACC title game and a bowl still possible, Sheppard has a path to the kind of total that hasn’t been seen in Durham, and to a finish that puts him squarely in the Heisman conversation.
The case against, and why it doesn’t hold
“Duke has two losses.” They’re by a combined seven points (28-25 at Georgia Tech, 24-20 to UNC), and Sheppard had 190 and 175 yards from scrimmage in them. He didn’t lose those games.
“It’s a quarterback’s award now.” Mostly true. That’s exactly why a running back with 21 touchdowns and a school record book in his pocket deserves a harder look, not a softer one.
“He went quiet in October.” He scored a touchdown in all four of those games, including five in one of them. Quiet doesn’t look like that.
The audition: Saturday at Miami
The schedule couldn’t have set this up better. Next up is a trip to No. 5 Miami (8-1) to face Darian Mensah, the former Duke quarterback and one of the top three names on the Heisman odds board. The Hurricanes are coming off their first loss of the season, 31-24 to Notre Dame, which knocked them out of the No. 1 spot. A big day from Sheppard there would put his record chase, his touchdown streak and his Heisman case in front of the biggest audience of his career, against the guy who left Durham.
After that, it’s Clemson at home on Nov. 20 and a trip to No. 11 Wake Forest (8-1) on Nov. 28. The Heisman ceremony is in December. If the Nate Train keeps rolling through November, voters won’t be able to ignore him.
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