For the first time this year, we’ve debuted a Computer Poll, inputting the most important factors that drive CFB team quality into a formula that historically best correlates with on-field success. We’ve used this to create preseason rankings for each conference as well as a Top 25.
The Mid-American Conference, colloquially known as the MAC (and more affectionately known as #MACTION), is an increasingly nostalgic conferences. While other conferences expand across the country, the MAC seems like one of the only conferences to retain a regional culture.
This year in particular, the MAC is very intriguing. They didn’t lose or gain anyone like CUSA and the American, but it’s shaping up to be a competitive race for a spot in the Detroit Championship. Toledo has the lead according to sportsbooks, but Ohio is not far behind, with Buffalo, Miami (OH) and EMU in a tight back behind. But, without further ado, here are our MAC preseason rankings from our computer poll.
12. Kent State
The downfall (again) of Kent State is a sad story of modern CFB. Deion Sanders, a man that best represents the state of the sport, hired away the Kent State HC Sean Lewis. This definitely sets them back, as well as the transfers that followed Coach Lewis. The worst returning production in the country is what really locks them at the bottom of our list.
11. Akron
Akron actually has decent returning production, putting them right in the middle of the pack as far as roster retention goes. That being said, they weren’t a great roster to begin with, and some of the worst recruiting in the country did them no favors.
10. Western Michigan
Western Michigan is much closer to Kent State than Akron in terms of roster retention, with the 13th worst returning production in the country. They recruited better than everyone in the MAC except Buffalo and CMU though, which, combined with a middle of the MAC team to begin with, lands them a few spots from the bottom in our computer poll.
9. Ball State
A fun fact is that Ball state revamped their mascot this year. Unfortunately, they’ll also have to revamp most of their roister, with the 5th worst returning production in the MAC. They also are one of the worse recruiting teams in the MAC, but should pull ahead of the prior members of this list, at least.
8. Bowling Green
Bowling Green was one of our sneaky picks to exceed expectations last year. They had a decent showing, going 5-3 in conference and qualifying for a bowl, but it will take some upward battle to return to that stage this year with a stronger top of the MAC and middling returning production compared to their conference mates.
7. Northern Illinois
NIU always seems to be on the stronger side of the MAC (in fact, they have the most conference titles with 9), but our model doesn’t expect them to contend as strongly this year. That being said, they have the 12th most returning production in the country, so hopefully the locker room chemistry overcomes some of their shortcomings.
6. Central Michigan
Central Michigan is one of the few teams in the MAC with a good mix of returning production (52nd) and recruiting (83rd). That, combined with consistency in head coach Jim McElwain, should lead to better results than last years 4-8 campaign.
5. Miami (OH)
Central Michigan and Miami (OH) are pretty comparable, with Miami barely making a bowl last year thanks to some non-conference wins. They have a little more returning production than CMU with a little worse recruiting, but we our model predicts these two teams will have similar finishes.
4. Buffalo
The good news – Buffalo had the best recruiting class in the MAC this year. The bad news – they’re going to need it, because they have the fourth worst returning production in conference. That being said, Buffalo is a consistent program despite facing a number of coaching changes in the last few decade (with Coach Linguist retuning for his third season), and our model expects them to have a consist performance with last years divisional second placement.
3. Ohio
Our model predicts Ohio follows their strong, conference runner up appearance from last year with one of similar caliber. Despite having some of the lowest roster retention from last year and lackluster recruiting, the pieces Ohio retained should be enough to roll through the conference once again.
2. Eastern Michigan
Our model predicts Eastern Michigan will contend for the division once again. They had a stellar performance last season, winning 9 games, and they have the 6th best returning production in the MAC as well. Unfortunately for them, #1 in our computer poll shares the division with them.
1. Toledo
Our computer poll predicts Toledo once again will raise the MAC Championship Trophy. After all, last year’s team was good enough to win, and Toledo boast’s the 11th best returning production in the country (the only team in the MAC ahead of NIU). They earn their spot as the sportsbook favorites, and we’re expecting they repeat.
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